Bad Gas

Now this is what makes international politics so interesting.

Russia decides they are going to punish the West-leaning current government of the Ukraine by demanding that they suddenly pay 4 times as much for natural gas then they used to.

Apparently, that is the price you pay for surviving an assassination attempt from Moscow-backed political enemies and promoting real democracy.

So Ukraine balks. Predictably. But the foreign policy geniuses in Russia forgot that the same pipes that flow gas to Ukraine are also used to deliver to Russia’s western European customers. So when they shut off Ukraine, the Ukraine (again, predictably) simply takes their share anyway before passing on a diminished amount to the West.

And who do you think gets blamed? Bingo. The bullies who created the situation in the first place. The ones who would like to go back to the bad old days of the Cold War where they could snap their fingers and tell pesky satellite states what’s what.

Personally, I applaud the Ukrainians for their illegal action. They are in the privileged position of being an irreplaceable middleman of a precious commodity. So Russia can’t turn off the spigot on Ukraine without immediately pissing off all their Western customers (who are the same governments who can help or hinder their entrance into the WTO).

That’s the beauty of globalization in my mind. It’s the amalgamation of self-interest which keeps everyone in line by balancing their strategic interests against the worser elements of their political nature.

Ukraine is lucky that pipelines are expensive. On the other hand, if Russia truly decides that it’s in their strategic interest to have a direct pipeline to the Western states, thier “Strategic Fund” they have accumulated from their oil profit boon of the past 5 years gives them that option.

A delicate game of bluster and finesse.

This is what makes international politics so interesting.